Housing Market "Beached Whales"

What's Wrong With This Picture?

You don't know who's swimming naked until the tide runs out.

--Warren Buffett

So, what's wrong with this Minnetonka home (pictured above)?

That is, besides that fact that the front (and most important) photo on MLS looks like the home is stuck in a winter time warp, and it's now almost May.

Actually, nothing.

I just showed the home, and it's very impressive.

Great floor plan; open, spacious Kitchen; great owner's suite (and three more bedrooms up).

So what is it, then?

The rest of the block.

Whereas this home, built in 2006, is selling for $649.9k, all the other homes on the block are easily 50 years older, less than half the size, and worth hundreds of thousands less.

As the locals say, "uff da!"

Housing Market Time Machine

What happened?

This home -- and hundreds of other homes like it in the Twin Cities -- was built in 2006 at the height of the market.

At the time, homes were appreciating 15% annually, and the sky was a(n almost) cloudless blue.

Developers were getting ever-more aggressive putting up "spec" homes, venturing from "sure bet" neighborhoods to ones (like this one) where prevailing home prices were dramatically lower and nothing had turned over yet.

Their thinking, no doubt, was that the whole block was a candidate for redevelopment, and that their smart, new home would soon be surrounded by other, similar homes.

But then all of a sudden . . . the tide went out.

For now, this is the only new home on the block.

From the street, it's hard to escape the image of a beached whale, now stranded a long way from the receding ocean.

Underwater Mortgages: How Much?

Underwater . . vs. Drowned

According to The New York Times, "about $500 billion in mortgage debt is already underwater" ("Bailout Likely to Focus on Most Afflicted Homeowners"). That's realtor-speak for a house being worth less than the mortgage against it.

Unfortunately, based on my calculations, that number appears to be conservative.

Using industry statistics, and a blend of various housing price indices (National Association of Realtors, S&P/Case-Shiller, etc.), I estimate that more than $540 billion in mortgage debt nationally is now underwater. Of course, that number continues to rise as home prices fall.

Here is the math, along with the underlying assumptions (downpayments are presumed to rise steadily from 2006, as lending standards tightened; homes sales include both new and existing):

2006

Home sales (units): 6.5 million

Sale price (ave.): $250,000
Down payment (ave.): 5%
Mortgage (ave): $237,500
2009 market value: $187,500
Amount "underwater" (ave): $50,000
Total -- all homeowners: $324 billion underwater

2007

Home sales (units): 5.7 million

Sale price (ave.): $233,000
Down payment (ave.): 7.5%
Mortgage (ave): $215,525
2009 market value: $187,500
Amount "underwater" (ave): $29,125
Total -- all homeowners: $165 billion underwater

2008

Home sales (units): 4.9 million

Sale price (ave.): $220,000
Down payment (ave.): 10%
Mortgage (ave): $198,00
2009 market value: $187,500
Amount "underwater" (ave): $11,000
Total -- all homeowners: $54 billion underwater

Underwater mortgages - Total: $543 Billion

As the foregoing shows -- and the chart illustrates -- the closer to the 2006 peak one bought, the further underwater they are.

To round out the picture, some further tweaking is necessary.

Specifically, add: 1) the "pre-peak" home buyers in 2004-2005 who still caught some appreciation, but who lost that (and more) in the subsequent decline; and 2) all the homeowners who borrowed against their homes via home equity loans and cash-out refinancings.

The main subtraction would be the three million-plus homeowners who've already lost their homes to foreclosure. According to Moody's Economy.com, foreclosures could swallow another five million homes the next three years.

If so, that will certainly reduce the number of underwater mortgages -- but only because a corresponding number of homeowners will have drowned.