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Showing posts with label parachutes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label parachutes. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Parachuting & Buyer Rep Contracts

The Perils of Overconfidence, Experience

What do parachuting and Buyer Rep contracts have in common?

I recall from my one time parachuting, almost 30 years ago (I knew the experience would prove to be useful in later life), that parachute fatalities actually fall into two groups.

Unceremoniously referred to as "bouncing," the first group -- no surprise -- consists of the greenest, most inexperienced parachutists: people who are doing it for their first or second time, and are presumably too panicked to deal with a parachute malfunction (assuming they even knew what to do) should circumstances require. (And by "require," I mean the 12 seconds or so you have to jettison the snarled chute and open the reserve one in time to break your fall.)

Inexplicably, however, the second group of parachute fatalities consists of the most experienced parachutists.

It turns out that these types are so confident and relaxed, that they lose track of the fact that the (very hard) ground is coming up, faster and faster, to meet them.

So, they simply wait too long to open their chute.

Real Estate "Parachutes"

Thankfully, the consequences of inattention in real estate aren't so high.

But revisiting the topic of Buyer Rep Contracts from yesterday, it seems obvious that agents who rue skipping this important step split into two, similar types.

The first type is the "newbie" Realtor who doesn't know how any of it works.

They don't know what's in the Buyer Rep contract (and so therefore are uncomfortable presenting it), don't know the appropriate time to discuss it, etc.

So they don't.

When, after months or even years of hard work the would-be client buys something from someone else (or never does), they learn their lesson.

However, the second type is the very experienced agent, who knows the contract backwards and forwards.

Frequently, they may even know the client from previous deals.

Which is actually the germ of the problem.

Namely, all that familiarity and experience can breed an undue comfort level, and even -- dare I say it -- a sense of sloppiness.

Different Outcomes?

Unlike the newbie Agent, the experienced agent in this situation often makes out fine . . . precisely because they are experienced.

They know the client, the client knows them, everyone knows their assigned role and performs it well.

But still . . . it just seems that you never hear about the agent who regretted insisting on getting a signed Rep contract, early in the relationship.

But surprisingly often, you do hear about -- and from -- the one who didn't. (And yes, you're not really experienced until you've had it happen to you.)

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

How Many Parachutes?

Pick Your (Economic) Metaphor

The real question is, now what? Government interventions are only meant to light a fire under the real economy and unleash what John Maynard Keynes called our "animal spirits." But government dollars can't sustain growth.

Like it or not, the stock market is bigger than the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury. The stock market anticipates only future profits and prosperity, not government-funded starter fluid. You can only fool it for so long. Unless there are real corporate profits from sustainable economic growth, the stock market is not going to play along.

--Andy Kessler, "The Bernanke Market"; The Wall Street Journal (7/15/09)

Kessler's is one of the better takes I've seen recently on "where we're at now" (a rapidly growing genre of Op-Ed pieces lately).

Here's my, somewhat starker take:

Parachute #1, monetary policy -- the Fed's control of (short-term, wholesale) interest rates -- has been fully deployed for quite some time. Once rates are zero, you're done. (Eventually, so-called "quantitative easing" ignites inflation fears.)

Parachute #2, fiscal policy -- also known as government spending -- has now been deployed in the form of what I'll call "TARP, SCHMARP, and GARP" (sorry, lost of track of all the ad hoc acronyms some time ago -- maybe that was the point).

The economy's rate of descent now seems to be slowing.

How far away is the ground? Do we have any more parachutes?

Stay tuned . .

P.S.: if you're new to all this economic metaphor-stuff, "soft landing" seems to get recycled every 10 years or so.