"Steve," Economic Bellwether
Want to know the latest economic and business trends?
You could read widely (The NY Times, Wall St. Journal, etc.), conduct lots of surveys, or have keen powers of perception.
Or, you could just observe a long-time friend of mine (I'll call him "Steve" for purposes of this post).
A decade ago, Steve was bragging about the latest Internet IPO he'd bought into .
Five years ago, he was bragging about how much his home had appreciated.
Today?
We caught a bite to eat, and Steve was bragging about all the discounts he got on the new printer he just bought.
Zeitgeist Barometer
After totaling up all the in-store rebates, mail-in coupons, etc., apparently he paid $30 for an HP printer that retails for almost $200 (tantalizingly close to the bargain hunters' promised land: having them pay you to buy something).
There you have it: Steve, a one man economic bellwether.
Hmmm . . . I wonder if he knows why I keep treating him to lunch every six months or so.
P.S.: the one thing I remember from my one college statistics class is the coefficient of correlation. Two things that are perfectly correlated are a +1.0; inversely correlated, -1.0. Two things that are absolutely unrelated have a coefficient of correlation of "0."
What difference does any of that make?
When it comes to investments, most people look for experts whose coefficient of correlation predicting winners is quite high (ideally 1.0). However, as my professor pointed out, always wrong is just as valuable as always right -- you just do the opposite! (Seinfeld devotees will recognize this as the principle underlying "Opposite George.")
In fact, that's how I pick the movies I want to see: I just ask my sister what she's seen lately that she really, really hated.
Showing posts with label zeitgeist. Show all posts
Showing posts with label zeitgeist. Show all posts
Monday, December 21, 2009
Sunday, August 23, 2009
"Monster Movies," Then & Now
Cinematic Zeitgeist
The last time I remember big, Hollywood movies being this dark and disturbing was the mid-'70's.
If you're too young to remember, that was the period after Watergate but before Jimmy Carter (and his "misery index," melding inflation and unemployment); after Vietnam (just); between the two oil shocks and resulting energy crises; and a time of high unemployment and general economic dislocation and malaise -- much like today.
About all that's missing from today's economic mix is inflation (at least for now).
Moviegoers who wanted to be scared out of their wits then could choose amongst "Carrie," "The Omen," and "The Exorcist."
Even the PG-rated "Jaws," one of the biggest hits of that era, was hardly tame (I know it was PG because I was 15 then and saw it with friends).
Of course, just around the corner were equally dark films like "The Deer Hunter" and "Midnight Express."
Monster Movies & Movie Monsters
Fast forward to today.
Waiting for "Inglorious Bastards," Quentin Tarantino's new movie, to start last night, I was treated to previews of the following cinematic "parade of horribles":
--"Shutter Island," a Martin Scorcese - Leonardo DiCaprio collaboration, about a mental asylum with terrible secrets that DiCaprio apparently uncovers and wishes he hadn't (me, too);
--"Halloween II," featuring even more gore and violence than its predecessors, mostly inflicted on vulnerable, young women in the most graphic way(s) imaginable (did they make so many "Halloween" sequels that they simply started to re-number? I thought they were up to at least 7 by now).
--"Avatars," perhaps the most disturbing of all, a completely creepy movie about pseudo and imaginary humans preying on the real thing, with the latter apparently in extreme and perpetual peril.
Tarantino's Latest
All these were just the under card for the main event: Tarantino's re-imagining of World War II as a foreshortened affair, primarily due to the exploits of what one reviewer called "the dirty half-dozen."
Suffice to say that Tarantino, the auteur behind "Pulp Fiction," "Kill Bill," and other gore-fests, doesn't disappoint.
I don't pretend to know whether movies help set the national mood, or are a product of it.
Either way, it would appear that there are some major league demons in the air at the moment.
If only they were all imaginary . . .
The last time I remember big, Hollywood movies being this dark and disturbing was the mid-'70's.
If you're too young to remember, that was the period after Watergate but before Jimmy Carter (and his "misery index," melding inflation and unemployment); after Vietnam (just); between the two oil shocks and resulting energy crises; and a time of high unemployment and general economic dislocation and malaise -- much like today.
About all that's missing from today's economic mix is inflation (at least for now).
Moviegoers who wanted to be scared out of their wits then could choose amongst "Carrie," "The Omen," and "The Exorcist."
Even the PG-rated "Jaws," one of the biggest hits of that era, was hardly tame (I know it was PG because I was 15 then and saw it with friends).
Of course, just around the corner were equally dark films like "The Deer Hunter" and "Midnight Express."
Monster Movies & Movie Monsters
Fast forward to today.
Waiting for "Inglorious Bastards," Quentin Tarantino's new movie, to start last night, I was treated to previews of the following cinematic "parade of horribles":
--"Shutter Island," a Martin Scorcese - Leonardo DiCaprio collaboration, about a mental asylum with terrible secrets that DiCaprio apparently uncovers and wishes he hadn't (me, too);
--"Halloween II," featuring even more gore and violence than its predecessors, mostly inflicted on vulnerable, young women in the most graphic way(s) imaginable (did they make so many "Halloween" sequels that they simply started to re-number? I thought they were up to at least 7 by now).
--"Avatars," perhaps the most disturbing of all, a completely creepy movie about pseudo and imaginary humans preying on the real thing, with the latter apparently in extreme and perpetual peril.
Tarantino's Latest
All these were just the under card for the main event: Tarantino's re-imagining of World War II as a foreshortened affair, primarily due to the exploits of what one reviewer called "the dirty half-dozen."
Suffice to say that Tarantino, the auteur behind "Pulp Fiction," "Kill Bill," and other gore-fests, doesn't disappoint.
I don't pretend to know whether movies help set the national mood, or are a product of it.
Either way, it would appear that there are some major league demons in the air at the moment.
If only they were all imaginary . . .
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