What's Selling: Fern Hill Foreclosure

Where: 2641 Kipling So. (St. Louis Park's Fern Hill Neighborhood)
What: 3 BR/2BA; 1,678 FSF
List Price: $165,000
On Market: 2/4/09
Time to sell: 2 days (*estimated)
Tax assessed value: $392,000

[Reader's note: for related posts, see, "Multiple Offers and $40k Over Asking" and "Fern Hill Flip]

Even in a soft market, a starter home in St. Louis Park's high demand Fern Hill neighborhood still fetches low $200's. (My unscientific definition of a "starter home" is anything with less than 1,000 FSF, and 2 BR/1BA).

And this Kipling home is substantially more house than a starter: in good condition, it could easily be worth high-$200's, if not more. (I think the tax-assessed value is way off here).

While this bank-owned home struck me as rough -- I previewed it for a client who decided to pass -- I'd estimate that a well-spent $20k-$30k would take care of everything. That leaves plenty of upside for anyone paying close to the $165,000 asking price.

In fact, based on the deep discount and fast sale, you'd speculate that there were multiple offers, and that the ultimate Buyer overshot the asking price.

We'll know March 10, when it's scheduled to close.

*According to MLS, this home was actually on the market for 5 days. However, it's a good bet that most of that time the home's status was actually what Realtors call "sold, subject to inspection." By convention, most homes remain "Active" until the Inspection Contingency is removed.

Now You See It . . Now You Don't

Where: 4241 Basswood Rd. (Fern Hill neighborhood in St. Louis Park)
Asking Price: $699,900
Sold Price: $670,000
Tax Value: $731,000
Key Stat's: 3 BR/3BA; 4,300 FSF
Market Time: one day (12/31/2008)

"The reason dolphins have a reputation for saving drowning swimmers is that you never hear from the ones they push out to sea."
--Anonymous

There's no question that the housing market is soft in many areas of the Twin Cities.

However, one of the reasons that it appears softer than it really is is that everyone knows about the homes that aren't selling: they've got conspicuous "For Sale" signs in front, attract a steady stream of slow-moving traffic (or not), and almost seem to project a certain forlorn quality as time passes . . . and passes.

By contrast, a home that sells fast barely makes a ripple. The immediate neighbors certainly know about it -- they know about everything -- but anyone just driving past probably doesn't.

"Stealth Sale"

A great example of a home that just came (and went) before the general public knew about it is 4241 Basswood.

The listing agent networked the home via email to other agents, which is how I found out about it. However, the next thing anyone knew, it appeared on MLS "sold."

No "For Sale" sign, no Sunday open, no Broker open (Tuesdays). Boom . . gone. Total market time: one day.

Such "stealth" sales are more common than you might expect, and underscore two things about today's market:

One. Newspaper editors' favorite saying, "if it bleeds, it leads," applies to the housing market, too. Bad news is loud, good news is quiet.

Two. If you are a Buyer and want first crack at a choice property, you'd better have a Realtor.

In my experience, the most desirable homes attract a crowd, in strong and weak markets alike. By the time the general public knows about them . . . it's already too late.