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Showing posts with label rehab. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rehab. Show all posts

Friday, October 8, 2010

Watch this Space: 4121 W. 28th St.

New-and-Improved in Fern Hill

The Seller (my client) moved out in July.

Guess who moved in?

Not the Buyers -- their contractors.

Six months from now, this 1937 Colonial will have undergone a top-to-bottom renovation costing well into six figures.

Take a project like this, multiply by 10 (conservatively) over the last 2-3 years, and you have the ingredients for a very healthy neighborhood.

Which Fern Hill certainly is.

Sunday, September 5, 2010

"The Flip is Dead . . . "

Where: 4906 Old Cedar Lake Road just south of 100 & 394 in St. Louis Park
What: 3 BR/1 Bath rambler built in 1924 in very rough condition
How much: asking price $89,900; sold price $78,500
When: listed 3/26/2010; off-market 4/21/2010

. . . "Long LIve the Flip"

Where: 4906 Old Cedar Lake Rd.
What: completely rehabbed, 3 BR/1 Bath home with just over 1,000 FSF
When: on market Sept. 3 (Fri.)
How much: list price = $189,900

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Extreme Makeover - Fern Hill Edition

Worst-to-First on Huntington

You're not likely to recognize the home pictured above -- 2820 Huntington Ave. South, in St. Louis Park's Fern Hill neighborhood.

And no, it's got nothing to do with the snow being gone.

Rather, it's because there are multiple dumpsters in front, and the place is swarming with contractors.

Extreme Makeover

What's going on?

The new owner, apparently a spec builder/remodeler, is doing a major addition upstairs (finishing the expansion, and bumping it out towards the back of the yard), as well as totally renovating the first floor and widening the garage from one car to two.

When the work is complete, the home is likely to be put back on the market somewhere around $800k, probably sometime in late Summer.

That's more than double what the buyer paid for it, $390k, and still leaves a nice profit even after subtracting what is sure to be $250k or more in labor, material, and financing costs.

Makeover Economics

Extreme makeover candidates share many of the same attributes as tear-downs, about which I've blogged numerous times previously ("Tear-Down Economics," "Contender . . . or Pretender?" "Attributes of Tear-Down Neighborhoods").

Namely, they have the potential to go from "worst to first" in a neighborhood where the ceiling on homes is much higher than the asking price. (I've also referred to this phenomenon as "playing tear-down leapfrog").

In this case, Huntington has a huge, 2,000 square foot foundation; sits on an almost quarter-acre lot; and is on a block where the top end is high six figures.

Check, check, and check.

Friday, May 1, 2009

"Rehab Glass" Half Empty

In Buyer's Market, Rehab Discount Widens

Less than three years ago, the discount on a solid-but-dated home was quite small -- maybe 10%.

Today, at least anecdotally, it seems to me that the corresponding discount has widened considerably, to perhaps double that. (Note: at any given time, there are two kinds of Buyers for rehab properties: owner-occupants, and resellers -- "flip" refers to something illegal).

What explains the change?

Reasons #1, #2, and #3 all have to do with the economy: it stinks. Unemployment is up, confidence is down, and the supply of homes needing rehab is much greater. Meanwhile, mortgages may be cheap, but they're only available to borrowers with strong credit.

Related to all the foregoing is a palpable change in psychology.

When the market's going up, contemplating a rehab is exciting. It's easy to see potential everywhere you look -- and imagine the pay-off waiting for you when it comes time to sell.

In a soft market, however, prospective Buyers focus more on risk.

Will the market drop before I'm ready to sell? Is my budget and timetable for doing the work realistic? What if subsequent Buyers don't like the finished product?

And certainly this question: will I have an even better opportunity if I wait?

Needless to say, such psychology puts a damper on Buyers' enthusiasm -- and consequently, what they're willing to pay for homes needing substantial updating.

Of course, the flip side is this: precisely because of the foregoing mindset . . . there's a lot less competition for the multiple opportunities out there now.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

"De-Listing" Dilapidated Homes

$30,000 Houses: Smarter to Raze than Restore

When the share price of a company traded on the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE") falls below $1, it faces the prospect of being dropped from trading ("delisted").

Presumably, the rationale is that such companies are in extremis, and, for the health of the broader market as well as more viable concerns, need to be culled.

So, too, there should be an analogous principle for homes on the Multiple Listing Service ("MLS"). Once a home's list price falls below a given amount -- say, $30,000 -- it presumptively is in such bad shape that: a) no future owner is likely to find it cost-effective to restore; and b) given (a), the home's only remaining role is to sit, abandoned and deteriorating, dragging down the value of surrounding homes.

Better to cut out the cancer before it spreads.

Sadly, in many cities nationally, foreclosed homes have fallen so dramatically in price that the cost to buy and raze them may now be less than the cost to board and police them.

Locally, more than 160 Minneapolis homes are now listed for less than $40,000.

Assuming that their fair market is actually about $30,000 apiece, the city could buy them all for less than $5 million. For another, say, $5 million, the city could, through its eminent domain power (which requires due process and fair compensation), assemble contiguous parcels that could either be turned into parks and green space, or redeveloped on a project-by-project basis ("let 1,000 redevelopment plans bloom??").

Such an initiative would have three immediate, widespread benefits:

One. Remove a pox on the local housing market.

Foreclosures are to a healthy housing market what gangrene is to the body: a spreading, mortal threat.

Financially, foreclosed properties depress surrounding properties as much as 50%. Why? Because no one wants to live on a block with a neglected and deteriorating house -- let alone three of them. Don't think foreclosures are contagious? Let me give you a guided tour.

Like Faulkner's line about "pain's surcease," removing a negative IS a positive.

Two. Razing the worst of the worst will remove a large and growing stress on city resources (police, fire, cost of boarding abandoned homes, etc.)

The city's current strategy -- trying to recoup its oversight costs by hitting bank-owners with a $6,000 abandoned home fee -- ultimately acts as a tax. Such taxes tend to get passed through to buyers -- or taxpayers -- one way or another.

As the saying goes, "better to drain the swamp -- get rid of the offending homes -- than to swat mosquitoes."

Three. Create productive, aesthetically pleasing space -- open and otherwise.

If done intelligently and well -- if -- such a project could actually make a positive impact. Think of it as an incubator for micro-developments. Or as a blank slate for future Frank Law Olmsted's. Or as a canvas for new home designs that incorporated new, cost-effective technologies (built-in electric car ports? communal "smart" gardens?). The plain truth is: the bar's pretty damn low.

Ironically, at least in Minneapolis, much of the most dilapidated housing is concentrated in well-located, close-in neighborhoods with otherwise good infrastructure.

Which raises the inevitable attacks.

Critics will no doubt argue that such an approach tears apart vulnerable neighborhoods, destroys affordable housing, or will otherwise aggravate rather than solve the housing market's worst problem(s).

Such criticisms may have been valid once, but not now.

An urban neighborhood full of $30,000 homes isn't a neighborhood any more. It's a no man's land at best, a crime and war zone, at worst.

And the only way to make $30,000 homes habitable again is to spend a multiple of that fixing them. (Substitute "banks" for "homes," "profitable" for "habitable," add seven zeroes -- and you've got the nation's banking crisis in a nutshell.)

By definition, homes selling for $30,000 need all new major mechanical systems, new roofs, windows, appliances, siding, landscaping and a host of other fixes. They also frequently require remediation for water intrusion, mold, or other damage associated with neglect.

Far better to spend that repair money on something altogether new, and actually get something for it in return, than pour good money after bad.