"Is it Spring Yet?"

Calling the Bottom -- One Market at a Time

Asking whether "the housing market has bottomed yet?" strikes me a little like asking, "is it Spring yet?"

The answer depends on where you are.

So, it's certainly Spring in the middle of the U.S. Meanwhile, at least this week in the Twin Cities, it certainly doesn't feel like Spring is at hand (all that daylight sure helps, though). And in the southern hemisphere, it is Fall that's approaching, not Spring.

Fall in Manhattan

The real estate equivalent of the southern hemisphere is Manhattan. After remaining blissfully immune from national trends since . . forever, New York City hit the wall during the first quarter of 2009; preliminary reports are that sales are down 60% for that period ("Not Just a Bad Dream; The New York Times, 3/27/09).

Locally, things are decidedly mixed.

The neighborhoods with the highest concentrations of foreclosures still appear to be sliding (although sale volume is picking up).

At the other extreme, moderately priced, closer-in neighborhoods definitely seem to be stabilizing, if not strengthening.

Like Spring in the U.S., the housing bottom is likely to arrive in the Twin Cities in a spreading wave.