NYT Profile of "Curbed" Founder

Meet the "Realtor - Social Worker" *

The Sunday New York Times has a lengthy profile of Lockhart Steele (yes, that's his real name), the founder of real estate blog "Curbed."

If you didn't know -- and I was only vaguely aware -- Curbed (and other blogs like it) apparently are now integral to how New Yorkers (at least the ones not in the Bronx) buy and sell real estate. Oh, and the properties they're buying are exclusively over $500k -- frequently, a lot over.

Here's what Steele says blogs -- and technology in general -- are doing to the real estate business:

The broker’s job is no longer to tell people what a house is worth, or what nearby properties have sold for — everybody knows that now. Instead, a broker is more useful calming down a buyer agitated by a proliferation of Web gossip. The broker is less salesman, more therapist, or oracle. And by professional obligation, a daily reader of real estate blogs.

--Mark Oppenheimer, "The Optimist's Blogger"; The New York Times (3/15/2010)

So, is Steele right?

Partly.

He's definitely right that prospective Buyers engage with Realtors much "later" in the process.

It's not uncommon now for my clients, at a first meeting (!), to hand me a lengthy list of properties they want to check out (or have already seen!).

Thanks to the Internet, there is exponentially more information available about real estate.

However, in my experience, that doesn't necessarily make Buyers and Sellers more knowledgeable about how the process works.

As far as the "emotional" side of the business, there's no denying that technology makes an already close relationship even closer.

You don't invite your lawyer or dentist into your home, and share intimate details about your family, finances, and lifestyle; trusted Realtors are privy to all that (and more).

Where I think the article misfires, though, is extrapolating from Manhattan to other markets generally -- markets that don't have Manhattan's demographics, density, or money.

At least in the Midwest, not everybody is a Gen-Y'er who lives and breathes Twitter, Facebook, and blogs (at least not yet). Nor are they in the market for $1 million-plus Soho (or NoHo or NoLita or TriBeCa) lofts.

So, maybe the world Steele describes is coming . . . but it's not here yet.

*When Josh Kaplan, a former social worker and now long-time City Lakes office manager, is asked why he got out of social work, his standard reply is, "what make you think I got out of social work??"

Does the Twin Cities Have an Alter Ego?

Which City is Most Like the "Mini-Apple?"

Having lived in both the Twin Cities and Manhattan, I don't see much resemblance between the two.

If I had to come up with a metro area most like the Twin Cities, it would be . . . Seattle.

Consider:

--They're both about the same size (Greater Seattle is about 3.35 million; the Twin Cities, just over 3.2 million);

--Both cities are known for their culture and specifically, their music scenes.

--They're both what many people consider "weather-challenged" (the Twin Cities has perpetual winter; Seattle, perpetual gray)

--Both cities are politically progressive; the surrounding areas . . . less so (Michelle Bachmann hails from a northern Twin Cities suburb).

--Both cities are home to a cluster of Fortune 500-type companies (Seattle's include Microsoft, Costco, Amazon.com, and Nordstrom; the Twin Cites, Target, 3M, Cargill, Medtronic, and General Mills); and a highly educated, white collar work force. According to Mpls - St. Paul Business Journal, Minneapolis and Seattle are tied as America's "most literate city."

Speaking of "white-collar" . . .

--Both cities and metro areas are predominantly white: out of the 40 largest metro areas, the core cities of Seattle and Minneapolis rank #2 and #5, respectively, in the percentage of white residents (though Minneapolis has surprisingly large Somali and Hmong communities).

Many of the parallels extend to the state-level.

Washington has the original "soccer mom" Senator, Patty Murray; Minnesota has soccer mom cum county attorney (and now Senator) Amy Klobuchar.

In fact, both states' political leadership count a disproportionate number of women.

I know it's heresy, but personally I'd trade Minnesota's 10,000 lakes and the BWCA for the Pacific Ocean and the Cascade mountains.

P.S.: Local civic leaders apparently seem to think that Omaha is the Twin Cities' closest doppelganger: every time a pro sports team threatens to leave, they warn that the Twin Cities will just be a "cold Omaha" if they let that happen.

Skyscraper Jungle

"Sliver Buildings" Take Their Place in NY Skyline

[Note to Readers: still in New York City; this is another "dispatch" in between kid-centric activities]

If you like skyscrapers, there's no better place -- at least in North America -- than New York City. All the buildings in downtown Minneapolis would barely fill up Rockefeller Center, which itself is perhaps 5% of Manhattan's commercial office space.

Since living here in the late 90's, though, there's a new "species" in the skyscraper jungle: 'the bamboo shoot.'

Also known as "sliver buildings," these are incredibly tall, incredibly narrow buildings: imagine a 60 story-plus building on the footprint of a two-story colonial house. Literally.

Ten years ago, I noted perhaps a half-dozen of these strange species; today, Manhattan easily has dozens.

Why the proliferation?

My guess is a combination of ever-more limited land, plus advancing technology.

P.S.: As a former resident of one, I have some advice to would-be tenants: check how many elevators the building has -- and if they work!

"Is it Spring Yet?"

Calling the Bottom -- One Market at a Time

Asking whether "the housing market has bottomed yet?" strikes me a little like asking, "is it Spring yet?"

The answer depends on where you are.

So, it's certainly Spring in the middle of the U.S. Meanwhile, at least this week in the Twin Cities, it certainly doesn't feel like Spring is at hand (all that daylight sure helps, though). And in the southern hemisphere, it is Fall that's approaching, not Spring.

Fall in Manhattan

The real estate equivalent of the southern hemisphere is Manhattan. After remaining blissfully immune from national trends since . . forever, New York City hit the wall during the first quarter of 2009; preliminary reports are that sales are down 60% for that period ("Not Just a Bad Dream; The New York Times, 3/27/09).

Locally, things are decidedly mixed.

The neighborhoods with the highest concentrations of foreclosures still appear to be sliding (although sale volume is picking up).

At the other extreme, moderately priced, closer-in neighborhoods definitely seem to be stabilizing, if not strengthening.

Like Spring in the U.S., the housing bottom is likely to arrive in the Twin Cities in a spreading wave.