(Seasonally) Quiet Out There

Very Still Ponds
On the assumption that Edina Realty's City Lakes Office is a good bellwether, it's pretty quiet out there at the moment.

How quiet?

For the seven day period December 20-26 -- in other words, spanning Christmas -- there were a sum total of 26 showings for my office.

By contrast, in early April, before the Buyer tax credits expired, weekly showings peaked at just under 300.

In non-tax credit years, the peak typically arrives a few weeks later, in late April - early May.

P.S.: And no, that's not a local pond; Minnesota's lakes and ponds are now very much frozen.

Memo to Calhoun Village Owners

"Don't Truck That Snow Away So Fast!"

One of the fringe benefits :) of pulling a couple very late nights the last week is seeing the procession of large trucks show up around 1 a.m. to clear my office parking lot of snow.

Since the blizzard that hit the Twin Cities a week ago, the Calhoun Village parking lot has shrunk to about half its usual size, while mountains of snow consumed the remainder.

Meanwhile, judging by the suddenly jammed parking lot, business at Calhoun Village the last week has never seemed better.

Hmmm . . . .

"The Scarcity Effect"

Clearly, some of the "pop" in business has to do with the calendar: the ten days or so preceding Christmas are traditionally a very busy time for the retailers, restaurants, etc. that populate Calhoun Village.

Subtract a few days for a blizzard and its aftermath, and you also create pent-up demand.

However, it's also the case that the suddenly packed parking lot has enhanced the appearance of booming business.

No Empty Seats -- or Parking Spaces

As Presidential advance teams know full well, if you book a 3,000 seat venue and 4,000 people show up, the event has "buzz."

If you instead book a 5,000 seat venue and get the exact same 4,000 people -- there are acres of empty seats and the event looks like a flop.

The same phenomenon also helps explain the cachet of Wrigley Field and Fenway Park -- both genuinely charming, historic places to watch baseball, whose allure is further enhanced by the fact that they're both undersized and therefore perpetually sold out.

Before Calhoun Village management gets the wrong idea, though, just keep in mind that the scarcity phenomenon only works to a point: restrict parking too much, and you get . . . the St. Louis Park Trader Joe's.

P.S.: Know why you've never seen an empty seat at the Oscar's, Emmy's or other big-time award shows?

"Seat fillers" immediately take the place of VIP's when they go to the restroom or otherwise take a break.

Rising -- and Falling -- Real Estate Bar

Want to Stand Out? Drop > 10%

Want some anecdotal evidence about housing market conditions these days in the Twin Cities?

Higher Bar. Edina Realty, the Twin Cities' largest broker, requires price reductions of 10% or more to qualify for intra-company email distribution (I believe the policy actually dates back to this Summer).

Previously, the requirement was 5%.

The logic?

Five percent drops are now run of the mill; to get Buyers' attention (and qualify for email distribution), the number's got to really be eye-catching (no such threshold exists for circulating price drops within a branch office).

Lower Bar. Meanwhile, the bar for hosting Exceptional Properties meetings in the Southwest Region (the geographic area including my office, City Lakes) continues to drop.

Three years ago, the floor was at least $1 million -- and most homes hosting the meeting were well above that.

Tomorrow's meeting is at a home listed for $589k.

P.S.: many Realtors, including yours truly, have custom email distribution lists to market their listings. The trick is knowing the difference between judicious use of such lists -- and spam.

What's Selling: Cedar Lake

Acing the "Ooh!" and "Aaah!" Factor

Where: 2700 Chowen Ave. South in Minneapolis' Sunset Gables subdivision (just south of Cedar Lake)

What: Moderne-style Art Deco with 5 Bedrooms and 5 Baths, and 3,800 finished square feet

How much: listed for $875,000; sold for $823,050 (94% of asking price, and more than $35,000 over the tax assessed value).

When: less than 3 months on the market; closed Friday (Oct. 22).

Who: listed by Ross Kaplan, Edina Realty City Lakes; selling agent Paul Larson, Coldwell Banker Burnet

What's selling in a tough market, especially for upper bracket homes?

Trophy properties like 2700 Chowen Ave. South, just south of Cedar Lake in Minneapolis.

This historically designated home probably generated more "ooh's" and "aaah's" than any other home I've listed, for good reason: prospective Buyers salivated over the original fresco above the Fireplace, the custom millwork and period Art Deco light fixtures, and all the space and light.

The clincher?

A $200k-plus first-floor addition (2004) complete with its own washer dryer and private, courtyard entrance.

What's Selling . . . Fern Hill

Where: 2537 Joppa, in St. Louis Park's Fern Hill neighborhood, 2 blocks west of Cedar Lake.

What: 1 1/2 story home built in 1950 with almost 2,000 finished square feet.

How (much): listed for $285,000

When: market time = 2 weeks (listed August 27); scheduled to close Oct. 15 (currently "Pending" on MLS)

Who: sold by Ross Kaplan, Edina Realty City Lakes; co-listed by Linda Platt and Jonathan Spar, Edina Realty

How did this 1950, 1 1/2 story two blocks from Cedar Lake sell in two weeks?

For starters, it helped that it was . . . two blocks from Cedar Lake.

So did an attractive list price, $285,000, that discounted for needed updating -- and then some.

Plus nice curb appeal, a .24 acre lot, and an especially open Living and Dining Room with huge picture windows (pictured above).

Other Factors

So what about the tax assessed value, $404,400?

That certainly didn't hurt the Buyer's perception of value.

However, as I've blogged previously ("Selling Price as % of Tax Assessed Value"), the tax value can be artificially high, especially when it's been years -- or decades -- since the home has changed hands (as was the case here -- the Seller bought the home in 1975 . . . for $46,000!).

What's Selling . . . Fern Hill

From Dowager to Belle of the Ball

Where: 2820 Huntington Ave. South, in St. Louis Park's Fern Hill neighborhood
What: top-to-bottom renovation of what had formerly been a 1 1/2 story home with less than 2,000 FSF
When: listed August 6; closed Sept. 20.
How (much): asking price = $859,900; sold price = $840k (purchased last Winter for $390,000).
Who: listed by Mike Sward, Edina Realty City Lakes

Talk about leap frog: what had been the dowager of this pretty block in Fern Hill is now the belle of the ball.

You name it, they did it: dramatically opened up space (see, "What do you do with dead space?"); four all new baths; a spectacular new Kitchen; a widened, 2 car garage in place of the original one car; 3 new dormers; a brand, new lower level with 1,700(!) finished square feet (and over 4,500 total in the re-done home); and a new mud room.

And on and on.

The result?

A quick sale (after about a month of market time) for virtually full price, followed by an even quicker closer (one week).

Fern Hill for (Just Over) $200k!

Where: 2615 Monterey in St. Louis Park's Fern Hill neighborhood
What: 2 BR/1 Bath stucco cottage on a private, 140' deep lot.
Who: listed by Ross Kaplan; Edina Realty City Lakes
How much: $209,900
When: market time = 30 days

You'll love this updated, character-filled stucco cottage in high-demand Fern Hill.

It has over $20k in recent improvements, including a new roof, all new windows, interior painting, and gorgeous, refinished hardwood floors.

Just down the street from Twin Lakes Park; blocks to Cedar Lake.

You can't live on a nicer block -- in a nicer area -- for less.

Please call or email me for more info.

Open House Today(!), 2:45 p.m. to 3:45 p.m.

2:45 p.m. to 3:45 p.m.??

Where: 1340 Fairlawn, in Golden Valley's South Tyrol Hills neighborhood
What: 4 BR/3 Bath '50's split-level with almost 3,600 FSF; built like a tank and very quiet! Set on a pretty, .33 acre lot.
How (much): $387,500
Who: listed by Ross Kaplan; broker is is Edina Realty
When: 2:45 p.m. to 3:45 p.m., Thursday, Sept. 2

What gives with the odd time?

That's when the Minneapolis Jewish Day School -- just down the street from Fairlawn -- lets out.

Not coincidentally, that's when about 300 cars go past on Cedar Lake Rd, just to the south.

This well-maintained home is a great candidate for families who send their kids to the school, and want a shorter commute.

Or anyone who wants a great deal on a well-built, family-sized home in a terrific, close-in neighborhood (about 8 minutes to Downtown Minneapolis; less to the Lakes).

P.S.: And no, holding an open between 7:45 a.m. and 8:30 a.m. (the school's drop-off window) didn't seem very appealing.

Now THAT's Staging

Want an example of a beautifully staged and photographed room?

You're looking at it!

The shot is from the entry at 2710 Mayflower (list price: $475k) in Minnetonka; Karen Antone from the Edina Realty City Lakes office has the listing.

(City Lakes) Realtor Stress Relief

Changing Tenant Mix @ Calhoun Village

I'm not expressing a personal preference, or examining the broader economic ramifications.

But I do find the changing tenant mix in Calhoun Village, where the Edina Realty City Lakes office is located, to be interesting -- and telling.

Gone: a video store and liquor store.

In their place: a "wellness center" offering massages, holistic health counseling, etc.

Probably better for any overstressed Realtors in my office -- personally, I don't know any :) -- to unwind with a massage then to down a six-pack while watching a video . . .

"Getting One's House in Order Last"

Housing Market "Chicken & Egg" Problem

Aren't people supposed to "put their houses in order first?"

That's not what I've been seeing lately, at least in the housing market.

Instead, the agents showing my listings all seem to be reporting that their clients can't do anything until they sell first.

So, why don't they?

Maybe because they need to find something they're excited about buying first.

P.S.: thanks to City Lakes office manager Josh Kaplan for this insight.

FRIDAY(!) Open House

Tax Credit Countdown

When: 4-6 p.m. today
Where: 4121 W. 28th St (28th & Inglewood Ave. So.), in St. Louis Park's Fern Hill neighborhood
What: 4 Bedrooms (all up), 3 Bath 1937 Colonial with 3,000 square feet
How much: $549,900
Who: listed by Ross Kaplan, Edina Realty City Lakes

Will there be a burst of last minute home purchases ahead of today's tax credit expiration?

We'll find out.

Just to give procrastinators one last opportunity, I'll be at my listing at 4121 W. 28th St. (28th & Inglewood) in St. Louis Park's Fern Hill neighborhood from 4 - 6 p.m. today.

Highlights -- besides the value, location, and curb appeal -- include a beautiful, wood-paneled Family Room; four Bedrooms up; formal Living and Dining Rooms; and a ton of charm and character throughout.

Oh, yes: and an attached, 3-car garage with tons of extra storage space, plus a Gazebo in back.

P.S.: For more on whether today's deadline is a big deal or not, see "It's a mad dash for home tax credits," in today's Pioneer Press. Reporter Chris Snowbeck surveys several local agents -- including yours truly -- about whether the tax credits are going to expire with a bang or a whimper.

Great Home, Great (New) Price

Handsome Fern Hill Colonial

When: $30k price reduction yesterday!

Where: 4121 W. 28th St (28th & Inglewood Ave. So.), in St. Louis Park's Fern Hill neighborhood
What: 4 Bedrooms (all up), 3 Bath 1937 Colonial with 3,000 square feet
How much: now $549,900
Who: listed by Ross Kaplan, Edina Realty City Lakes

This Fern Hill Colonial has a lot going for it: one of the most beautiful Family Rooms I've been in -- at any price point; four Bedrooms up; formal Living and Dining Rooms; and a ton of charm and character throughout.

Oh, yes: and an attached, 3-car garage with tons of extra storage space.

Don't miss the Gazebo in back.

Please call directly (612-925-7701) to set up a private showing.

NYT Profile of "Curbed" Founder

Meet the "Realtor - Social Worker" *

The Sunday New York Times has a lengthy profile of Lockhart Steele (yes, that's his real name), the founder of real estate blog "Curbed."

If you didn't know -- and I was only vaguely aware -- Curbed (and other blogs like it) apparently are now integral to how New Yorkers (at least the ones not in the Bronx) buy and sell real estate. Oh, and the properties they're buying are exclusively over $500k -- frequently, a lot over.

Here's what Steele says blogs -- and technology in general -- are doing to the real estate business:

The broker’s job is no longer to tell people what a house is worth, or what nearby properties have sold for — everybody knows that now. Instead, a broker is more useful calming down a buyer agitated by a proliferation of Web gossip. The broker is less salesman, more therapist, or oracle. And by professional obligation, a daily reader of real estate blogs.

--Mark Oppenheimer, "The Optimist's Blogger"; The New York Times (3/15/2010)

So, is Steele right?

Partly.

He's definitely right that prospective Buyers engage with Realtors much "later" in the process.

It's not uncommon now for my clients, at a first meeting (!), to hand me a lengthy list of properties they want to check out (or have already seen!).

Thanks to the Internet, there is exponentially more information available about real estate.

However, in my experience, that doesn't necessarily make Buyers and Sellers more knowledgeable about how the process works.

As far as the "emotional" side of the business, there's no denying that technology makes an already close relationship even closer.

You don't invite your lawyer or dentist into your home, and share intimate details about your family, finances, and lifestyle; trusted Realtors are privy to all that (and more).

Where I think the article misfires, though, is extrapolating from Manhattan to other markets generally -- markets that don't have Manhattan's demographics, density, or money.

At least in the Midwest, not everybody is a Gen-Y'er who lives and breathes Twitter, Facebook, and blogs (at least not yet). Nor are they in the market for $1 million-plus Soho (or NoHo or NoLita or TriBeCa) lofts.

So, maybe the world Steele describes is coming . . . but it's not here yet.

*When Josh Kaplan, a former social worker and now long-time City Lakes office manager, is asked why he got out of social work, his standard reply is, "what make you think I got out of social work??"

Open House Sunday 12:30 p.m. - 2:30 p.m.

Gorgeous Fern Hill Colonial

When: Sunday (3/14); 12:30 p.m. to 2:30 p.m.

Where: 4121 W. 28th St (28th & Inglewood Ave. So.), in St. Louis Park's Fern Hill neighborhood

What: 4 Bedrooms (all up), 3 Bath 1937 Colonial with 3,000 square feet

How much: $579,900

Who: listed by Ross Kaplan, Edina Realty City Lakes

This Fern Hill Colonial has a lot going for it: one of the most beautiful Family Rooms I've been in -- at any price point; four Bedrooms up; formal Living and Dining Rooms; and a ton of charm and character throughout.

Oh, yes: and a heated, 3-car garage!

Don't miss the Gazebo in back.

Please call directly (612-925-7701) to set up a private showing if tomorrow doesn't work . . .

Is a Vacant Home "Poorly Staged?"

Adding (Feedback) Insult to Injury

[Editor's Note: thanks to fellow City Lakes agent Sheri Fine for serving as a sounding board on this post.]

Is a vacant home "poorly staged?"

Judging by how most Buyer's agents complete showing feedback forms, the answer would be "yes."

But they're wrong.

In fact, a vacant home isn't staged at all.

Saying otherwise is a sure way to annoy Listing Agents, because: a) they're already quite aware that the home isn't staged; 2) it almost certainly wasn't their druthers (unstaged homes typically don't show well, and homes that don't show well . . . are harder to sell).

Adding (feedback) insult to injury, assuming the homeowner is getting feedback directly: the listing agent must now explain to their client why other Realtors seem to be saying that they're doing a poor job.

Slowest Weeks of the Year

Showing Statistics

The bad news? This is the slowest part of the year for the housing market.

The good news? The three slowest weeks of the year are now behind us.

In order of showing activity (most to least), they are:

3. The week straddling New Year's
2. The week straddling Thanksgiving
1. The week straddling Christmas (slowest of the year . . . by a lot)

At least in my office, Edina Realty City Lakes, the patterns the last few years are quite consistent, and seem to trump weather, the economy, and tax incentives (or not).

Slowest Week of the Year

Christmas Vacation -- for the Housing Market, Too

It's official: last Monday thru Sunday (Dec. 21 - 27) was the slowest week of the year.

Just as it was last year, and the year before.

My office -- Edina Realty City Lakes -- recorded 44 showings for that period.

By contrast, the peak period in early August had 332 showings.

That eclipsed the busiest week in Spring, which usually marks the peak.

The difference this year?

Buyers expected the first-time credit to expire at the end of November, and were hustling to get going in August and September.

Closings Up, Showings Down

Typical Late August

My office, Edina Realty City Lakes, tracks weekly statistics by several categories: new listings, showings, pending sales, closings, etc.

From a peak of almost 300 showings earlier this month, weekly showings are down about 50%. Meanwhile, closings -- which reflect activity 6-8 weeks earlier -- are WAY up.

Typical late August . . .

P.S.: to Realtors, the market sometimes feels like one big pipeline, with new prospects at the beginning, and closed sales at the end.

The Low-End is HOT!

No "Extra Innings" -- Promise

Where: 38xx 37th Ave. South, in Minneapolis' Longfellow neighborhood

When: listed yesterday (Aug. 3)

What: 2 BR, 1 BA home built in 1914.

Who: listed by Kathleen Doyle, Edina Realty City Lakes

How much: $91,900

Want an indication of how intense Buyer activity is at the lower end of the Twin Cities housing market at the moment?

This modest, 1914 Longfellow home -- all of 2 Bedrooms and 912 square feet, asking $91,900 -- has already elicited multiple offers, in less than 24 hours on the market. Another 20-30 Buyers are planning to see it today.

The listing agent, Kathleen Doyle (612-802-9066), who's out of my office, is advising everyone that all offers are due by tomorrow (Wed.) at 5 p.m.

P.S.: And no, it's not a foreclosure -- it's an estate sale. If Kathleen's handling it, you'll get a prompt response, and if your offer is the best -- you'll actually get it, no games or "extra innings"! Imagine . . .