May '09 Case-Shiller Stats

Market Snapshot: Case-Shiller vs. Ross Kaplan

According to the just-released S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, Minneapolis home prices rose 1% in May. If you like raw statistics, the May number was 109.77, vs. 108.51 in April.

Notwithstanding the "scientific" ring of such precise numbers, my Realtor's, "boots-on-the-ground" take is that things are much more amorphous.

Here's what I can confidently report as of late July:

--the window for getting a great deal on a foreclosure is closed, at least for now. The supply is down dramatically, and anything priced below market routinely draws multiple offers, negating whatever discount there may have been.

--the top end of the Twin Cities market -- high six figures and above -- remains very soft, with supply approaching almost 3 years.

--Overall Twin Cities inventory has quietly shrunk, from a peak of 34,000 units, to about 23,000 units now. Given that a balanced market is high teens, and a Seller's market mid-teens or lower . . . downward price pressure has clearly abated. In other words, we're bottoming (I do believe the Case-Shiller numbers are correctly reflecting that).

--That said, the "wild card" now isn't supply, but demand. Specifically, stuff like wages, jobs, and consumer confidence. The Buyers I'm working with are pleasantly surprised by their choices, but still quite cautious.

As I've previously written on this blog, the "one-size-fits-all" approach to the local housing market obscures lots of nuances.