Pre-Thanksgiving Leftovers

Sizing Up (What's Left of) the Summer Market

Maybe it's just the unseasonably cool weather prompting thoughts of Fall(!), but here's how I see the Twin Cities housing market shaping up between now and Thanksgiving, when things traditionally slow down.

Basically, I think the sub-$500k market has different qualities before and after Labor Day (housing above $500k is likely to mirror overall economic strength or weakness).

Between now and Labor Day, Buyers will have the best selection, and can expect stronger (higher) pricing.

After Labor Day, that will reverse, and Buyers can anticipate softer pricing, but smaller selection.

Swimsuits -- and Houses -- in Feb.

That's so because the Twin Cities market still has a strong seasonal component, with "Spring" (beginning mid-Feb.) the busiest, and Nov. - Jan. predictably the slowest.

Think of it this way: if you listed your home in April, and still haven't sold -- it's time to get serious. Cut the price, invest some money in fix-up, make a final marketing push.

In fact, many home Sellers are already at this point, and alert Buyers will snatch up the most enticing of these homes.

Once this process is complete, what will be left on the market?

The true "leftovers."

Such Sellers will now have to overcome three obstacles: 1) even greater accumulated market time (referred to on MLS as "CDOM," for cumulative days on market); 2) a rapidly closing window to sell before truly cold weather arrives; and 3) a depleted pool of Buyers.

Offsetting these negatives will require a truly compelling (read, low) asking price.