Rogers: 'Agriculture Better Than Gold'

The Other "Black Gold"

I expect to make more money in agriculture than I do in gold.

-- Investor Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers might not be quite the household name that Warren Buffett or George Soros is, but long-time investors know Rogers as an astute, independent market analyst -- who's made gobs of money, for both himself and his clients, spanning several decades.

So, it's noteworthy that Rogers has been beating his investment drum even louder for agriculture the last several years than he has for gold.

His rationale?

Farmland ("black gold?") is the ultimate play on rising inflation and commodity prices.

Gold has skyrocketed the last few years; farmland, not so much (yet).

Farmland isn't my specialty, but if you're an investor who's interested in buying some . . . I'll help you find someone at Edina Realty who's an expert! (and I guaranty, there is one).

A Realtor's Take on Recessions & Booms

"So, How's the Market?"

"A recession is when your neighbor loses their job. A Depression is when you lose yours."

--uttered by Presidents Truman and Reagan (and many others)

Little remarked -- but equally true -- is the converse: a "bounce," at least in the real estate business, is when you are busy; a "boom" is when you're swamped.

That's regardless of what's otherwise happening in your office, the overall market, various parts of town, etc.

After a torrid May-Sept, and a quiet(er) October, I am personally very busy heading into Thanksgiving and the year-end.

The principal caveat: Buyers now are expecting -- and getting -- deals.

P.S.: A colleague characterized this market as one in which "Buyers are getting the last word."

I'd go even further: Buyers in today's market are getting the last sentence -- or paragraph.

Microsoft: 'Buy the New Windows Phone. It's Boring.'

Less Addictive Than Competitors' Phones?

"Less staring. More clubbing."

--Sales pitch, new Windows phone 7

Having let my post-election guard down a bit -- fewer political commercials to screen -- I unwittingly caught a glimpse of Microsoft's TV ad campaign for its new Windows phone.

Apparently, its message is that people who are so obsessed with their cell phones that they're oblivious to everything else are dorks and boors.

"If you can't beat them . . . make fun of them??"

That may certainly be true, and it may even be a public service to point it out.

But that still seems to be an odd message coming from a company . . . trying to steal a slice of the cell phone market.

What's next -- a food company that markets its products by saying they taste so bad, you'll eat less of them and therefore be thinner??

How about a flat panel TV maker touting a new screen so blurry you won't be tempted to watch as much?

Flushing Savers From Their Foxholes

"Certificates of Confiscation" Once Again?

Certificate of Confiscation: 1970's term for bonds, certificates of deposit (CD's), etc. yielding less than (rising) inflation.

How do you get people (and corporations and banks) to stop hoarding cash, and put it to work, stimulating the economy?

Reduce interest rates to zero.

But what if that still doesn't do the trick?

Make holding cash not only unremunerative, but costly.

The best way to do that is to devalue the currency and/or create inflation, so that the value of cash steadily erodes, precipitating an inexorable stampede into . . . anything else.

Fleeing Cash

Which is basically what has been happening since late August, when The Federal Reserve signalled its intent to further stimulate the economy by printing more money (called "quantitative easing").

Since then, stocks have rallied about 10%, and commodities -- especially gold and oil -- are up anywhere from 15% to 40%.

Meanwhile, the dollar is down 8% against a basket of major currencies.

(Un)Intended Consequences

The problem with driving savers out of their negative-yielding foxholes is, what comes next?

The Fed hopes that all that liquidity will find its way into the stock market, driving up prices and creating a "wealth effect" that will spur spending and the broader economy.

But it's just as plausible that erstwhile savers will switch their affinity to something -- anything -- that promises immunity from central bank debasement.

That list includes: gold, silver, oil, wheat futures, Swiss francs, Australian dollars -- you name it.

As those things appreciate, they create inflation, which punishes consumers, which hurts the economy.

Can you say, "full circle?"