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Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Post-March 31 Mortgage Rates Flat

The Dog That Didn't Bark?

So, the Federal Reserve finished its massive, $1.25 trillion purchase of mortgage securities almost three weeks ago.

Have mortgage rates spiked upwards since then?

Nope, they're basically unchanged.

What could that mean?

Other investors -- supplying fresh capital -- have taken their place (the "supply explanation"); a weak economy is keeping demand for mortgages -- and therefore rates -- low (the "demand explanation"); and/or the Fed's exit was so loudly pre-announced that the bond market already anticipated it ("other").

As they say, "buy the rumor, sell the news."

Any other "Other" plausible explanations, anyone?

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