Contrarian Real Estate Bet

Which Way Mortgage Rates?

According to a certain (contrarian) school of thought, whatever everyone expects to happen . . . won't.

In the housing market, there seems to be almost universal agreement at the moment that mortgage rates are going to be higher -- perhaps dramatically -- in the second half of 2010 and beyond.

That's based on: 1) the expectation that the Federal Reserve will be removing the foot it has had firmly planted on the mortgage market "scales" the last year, as it purchased $1.2 trillion of mortgage securities on the open market; and 2) concerns about excessive liquidity -- courtesy of the Federal Reserve again -- reviving inflation.

Is everybody wrong?

It wouldn't be the first time . . . (and if they are, you'd guess that Nov. elections might have something to do with it).